"...the Iraq of 2008 is a tale of two paradoxes.
The first paradox, at once startling and ironic, is that Washington's decision to topple Saddam's government has put in place a ruling elite that is far closer to Iran than it is to the United States. As a result, the ayatollahs in Tehran have adroitly checkmated (a word derived from the Persian shah mat, "the king is dead") US efforts to install a compliant, pro-American regime in Baghdad as the anchor of Washington's interests in the oil-rich Persian Gulf. Now a proxy conflict between the United States and Iran is playing out on Iraq's complex chessboard. Depending on the course that US-Iranian relations take over the rest of Bush's tenure and the start of the next administration in Washington, Tehran has two options. If US-Iran ties improve, Tehran may try, at least in the short term, to broker a deal to stabilize Iraq, albeit one that fortifies the Shiite-led government in a way that accommodates Iran's regional interests. Or, if relations with the United States worsen, Iran can use its allies and agents in Iraq to end the relative calm and send the country tumbling back into all-out civil war.
The second paradox is that despite Iran's enormous influence in Iraq, most Iraqis--even most Iraqi Shiites--are not pro-Iran. On the contrary, underneath the ruling alliance in Baghdad, there is a fierce undercurrent of Arab nationalism in Iraq that opposes both the US occupation and Iran's support for religious parties in Iraq. In recent months, this nationalism has begun to express itself in many ways, from the national outpouring of support for the country's victorious soccer team last summer to the potent anger provoked by efforts to privatize Iraq's oil industry, by the Blackwater security firm's shooting of civilians in a Baghdad traffic circle and by suggestions in Washington that Iraq ought to be partitioned into three ministates. In addition, many Iraqi Shiites, like Iraqi Sunnis, harbor bitter feelings against their Persian neighbor left over from the bloody 1980-88 war, which left hundreds of thousands of Iraqis dead. "There is such a thing as Iraqi nationalism, and the default position tends to be one of hostility toward Iran," says Freeman. "Removing the US occupation as the focus of nationalism will almost certainly lead to a renewal of that nationalism's focus on Iran."
.....The Internal Shiite War
Especially over the past three years, a great deal of ISCI's lethality has been directed toward Muqtada al-Sadr's bloc and his powerful militia, the Mahdi Army, or Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM). From the suburbs of Baghdad, to Najaf and Karbala, to Diwaniya, Amarah and Basra, ISCI has been engaged in a bloody confrontation with the JAM, its chief rival among Iraq's Shiite population. And in the Badr versus Sadr fight, the United States has unequivocally supported ISCI. "The real struggle in the long term is between SCIRI and the Sadrists," says Joost Hiltermann of the ICG. "And the Americans have in fact chosen the SCIRI side in this." In so doing, they've chosen to side with a pro-Iran party against a movement that is, despite some ties to Iran, far more independent-minded than ISCI. Paradoxically, that's pushed Sadr closer to Iran.
The Sadr-Badr rivalry is intensified by the fact that both Sadr and Hakim are scions of legendary Iraqi clerical families. When the Hakims fled Iraq, taking up residence in Iran during the era of Saddam, the Sadrs stayed in Iraq. Because it was sponsored by Tehran, Hakim's ISCI is viewed suspiciously by most Iraqis, while Sadr's less organized movement--built mosque by mosque, underground, before, during and after the US invasion--has much deeper roots in Iraq. Their constituencies are different, too, breaking down clearly along class lines. Hakim represents the urban elite and Shiite Iraq's business and commercial class, and his party's leadership has much in common with the merchants, traders and bazaaris who are the backbone of the ruling elite in Iran. Sadr, on the other hand, has the undying loyalty of Iraq's Shiite underclass and urban poor, and he has gained the support of many former Shiite Baathists and Arab nationalists who felt they had nowhere else to go after the overthrow of Saddam.
Errr, let me see if I understand this right, we are supporting the Shiite faction in Iraq, the Badr Corps/ISCI (which is the power behind Malaki) which is most closely linked with Iran, against a more nationalistic Shiite faction, led by Sadr, resulting in pushing Sadr closer to "Axis of Evil" member Iran. And or soldiers are stuck in the middle...
"The Badrists are basically using the United States as a tool to weaken the Sadrists," says Peter Harling of the ICG. "We hear reports across the board of Badrists in neighborhoods denouncing whoever is related to the Sadrist movement to the United States. A number of people, including people who are hostile to the Sadrist movement, say that the Badrists are out in the field, doing the intelligence work and pointing the United States in what they say is the right direction--that is, against Sadrist elements. And the United States is not very discriminating in sorting out its enemies."
"The United States is being played," agrees Kenneth Katzman, Middle East specialist for the Congressional Research Service. "The US military is being played by the Hakims in this internecine struggle."
Clearly each faction is trying to put itself in the best position to rule when (not if) we leave. None of this even takes in to account the Sunni's, though none of the Shiite factions are too happy that we are arming them against the over hyped bogey man of the Repugs, al Qaeda in Iraq.
I reccommend reading the entire article.
Prediction for the future of Iraq: Grand Ayatollah Muqtada al-Sadr
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